A Tale of Two Cities

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times….sort of.  I have mixed feelings over the deals that the Yankees were able yesterday. As a fan of the game, I cannot help but admire the gutsy moves that GM Brian Cashman made yesterday; as a Redsox fan, I am forced to let out a string of unrepeatable expletives for the hearing pleasure of everyone within a six mile radius of my current location. In one fell swoop the Yankees were able stun the baseball world and fix all their major problems. In the deal, the Yankees sent young catching prospect Jesus Montero and RHP Hector Noesi in return for RHP Michael Pineda and minor league pitcher Jose Campos. They also signed RHP Hiroki Kuroda to a one year 10 million deal. In one day the Yankees ended the speculation that they would have a quiet off-season and managed to also address their on field needs. With their additions yesterday the Yankeees now have flexibility in the starting rotation, an obvious weakness last season. Right now the Yankees are carrying seven major league ready starting pitcher. Unless the Yankees plan on using a seven man rotation, a highly unlikely occurrence, than two of these pitchers will either be moved to the bullpen or traded. I’m betting that Yankees are counting on this to pressure their erstwhile starter, AJ Burnett. In the three seasons joining the Yankees Burnett has posted a 34-35 record with a cumulative ERA of 4.81, and a cumulative ERA + of 94 ( the league average is set at 100). By signing Kuroda, Garcia, and  Pineda, Burnett has become expendable and a possible trade chip. While his numbers might scare off some, he is still attractive to teams that are in desperate need of pitching. Even though he has won no more than 13 games for the Yankees, he has provided at least 32 starts in those three years.This makes him ideal as a middle of the rotation starter for a lot of ball clubs.Then there is also the problem of Phil Hughes. After a breakout 2010, Hughes suffered a severe set back in 2011 pitching only 74.2 innings to the tune of a 5.79 ERA. I’m sure that the Yankees are not ready to give up on Hughes (he is only 25), but he needs to have a rebound 2012 to put himself back in the good graces of the Yankee organization; he must certainly feel the pressure with the addition of two potential starting pitchers.

While Kuroda’s is a steal by  himself ( I talked about his numbers in an earlier blog https://thebullpenband.wordpress.com/2011/12/05/bosox-targets-part-2/), the real prize  that the Yankees got yesterday is  Michael Pineda. The 6 foot 7, 260lb Pineda is coming of a stellar rookie season, posting a 9-10 record, a 3.74 ERA, and 173 SO over 171 IP. He still needs some work but his upside is massive and he could round out to be a top of the rotation stud in the years to come. And time is one element that the Yankees have on their side in this matter; Pineda turns just 23 in four days, and is under contract through the 2016 season.

As it stands now, this is my prediction for the Yankee Starting rotation as of opening day:

LHP CC. Sabathia

RHP Hiroki Kuroda

RHP Ivan Nova

RHP Michael Pineda

RHP AJ Burnett

I think that the Yankees will break camp with Burnett in the rotation but I bet he’ll be on a pretty short leash. If he cannot perform, or either Freddy Garcia or Phil Hughes start to pitch well, he’ll be on the trade block.

While the Yankees came away from good pitching, the Mariners’ side of the deal is mainly about power. Long gone are the days of Ken Griffey Jr, Edgar Martinez and Alex Rodriguez. The Mariners were the worst offensive team in the AL last year with a  team average of .233 BA,  a .292 OBP, 109 HR, .348 SLG. In comparison, the 1-4 hitters of the Red Sox hit 97 HRs last season. The Yankees had no such offensive problems hitting .263 (5th), having a .343 OBP(2nd), a .444 SLG (3rd), and clubbed 222 HR (1st). So when the Yankees dangled the young catching prospect Jesus Montero, its hard to see the reason why they jumped at the chance. In a small sampling of 18 games, he hit .328 and 4 homers. While projections don’t mean much, its hard to ignore that the season extrapolation for Montero has him  hitting .328 with 36 homers and 108 RBI. Again this doesn’t really mean anything, but for a team that struggled like the Mariners  the possibility of having a truly offensive powerhouse in the middle of the line-up again is just too tempting. I think Ichiro will have a bounce back year, but not even he can carry a team on his own. I don’t see Montero displacing Olivo as the full time catcher, but he will certainly get significant playing time at DH. The other player that the Mariners got is RHP Hector Noesi. Noesi is mainly untested, only pitching 56.1 IP in 2011, and he was mainly used as a mid-reliever by the Yankess. He also started two games but I don’t see him becoming a full time starter in 2012.

In all, I think that the Yankees got the best of this deal.  I understand why the Mariners wanted Montero so bad, but I think they gave up too much. Montero will probably provide the punch the Mariners are looking for, but it leave them with one less solid starting pitcher. After Felix Hernandez, the rest of the rotation is all question marks. Only time will tell how this deal ends up but right now it looks like the Yankees came out on top.